York Climate Change Strategy: A City Fit for the Future: Technical Annex

About this Document

This Technical Annex supplements York Climate Change Strategy: A City Fit for the Future and aims to provide further detail on the content, analysis, policy context and objectives within the strategy. This technical annex should be used to provide a more in-depth understanding of the strategy and the assumptions behind pathways modelling.

Strategic Framework

The council and city partners are co-designing a 10 year plan that will be informed by three strategies covering climate change, economic growth and health and wellbeing. The council is following a sustainable approach to developing the city’s ambitions for the decade ahead.

The goal of sustainability is to, “create and maintain conditions, under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic, and other requirements of present and future generations.” or put simply - ‘Enough, for all, forever’.

This means that sustainable approaches need to consider the interdependencies between actions that might affect the environment, society, and the economy. To this end, the council is developing three strategies to inform city-wide direction over the next decade. 

The Strategy and Policy framework sets out how strategies and policies fit together to achieve overarching ambitions (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Strategic Framework showing the relationship between council Strategy, Policy and Action Plans.

Working Together

The Climate Change Strategy is for the whole of York. Achieving the ambition will be the responsibility of everyone living, working and visiting our city. We will need to work with existing and develop new networks and partnerships that can bring together organisations from the city’s public, private, community, faith, education and academic sectors to achieve the ambitious objectives and targets.

Figure 2: The stakeholders and partnerships involved in supporting and delivering the Climate Change Strategy

In Focus: York Climate Commission

The York Climate Commission was formed in December 2020 with the approval of City of York Council. Recognising that no single organisation has the power, authority, resources or ability to achieve the city-level change needed to deliver York’s ambition, the Commission was created.

The role of the York Climate Commission

• Promote leadership in the city on climate change, encouraging stakeholders to take effective action now, while maintaining a long-term perspective.
• Provide authoritative independent advice on the most effective steps required to meet the city’s carbon reduction target to inform policies and actions of local stakeholders and decision makers.
• Monitor and report on progress towards meeting the city’s carbon targets and recommend actions to keep on track.
• Make the economic case for project development, implementation and investment in low carbon and climate resilient projects in the city; and promote best practice in public engagement on climate change and its impacts in order to support robust decision-making.
• Bring together major organisations and key groups in York to collaborate on projects that result in measurable contributions towards meeting the city’s climate reduction target.
• Act as a forum where organisations can exchange ideas, research findings, information and best practice on carbon reduction and climate resilience.

Engagement & Consultation

The Climate Change Strategy was developed over a period of 18 months by speaking to residents, businesses, community groups and partners. It has also taken feedback gathered during delivery of the Covid Recovery and Renewal Strategy delivered in the aftermath of the pandemic and feedback from “My City Centre” consultation. The resident engagement process was phased to gather information with multiple ways to engage.

Our Big Conversation attitudinal survey helped to understand what’s important for the people who live, work and study in our city. Over 2,000 responses, covering residents and businesses, were received, telling us about different aspects of living in the city. The survey was available online and via Our City, the resident newsletter.

A combination of technical and industry roundtable meetings, focused stakeholder and partner discussions helped shape the strategies and covered different aspects of climate change. Through the summer of 2021, we held a series of stakeholder roundtable workshops covering the main themes of the Climate Change Strategy. These workshops, attended by experts from academia and industry, explored the local barriers and opportunities to delivering change at the pace and scale required to meet our ambition.

More targeted independently facilitated focus groups to explore strategic themes with target demographics took place throughout May and June 2022. These targeted groups invited participation from residents who did not engage in Our Big Conversation to make sure we had a blend of perspectives shaping the strategies. The groups were:

- Students in York

- 16-24-year-olds in York

- Members of York’s LGBTQIA+ community

- Blue-collar workers in York

- Parents of children aged 0-10 in York

- People with disabilities in York

- Members of York’s BAME community

- People in York who are currently not in education, employment or training

We then invited residents, businesses, community groups, city partners, regional policy leads and city stakeholders to review the draft 10 Year Strategies and tell us what they think about what it will be like to live in the city in 2032 through the Our Big Conversation: 10 Year Strategies Consultation, held throughout the summer 2022. The survey was available online or in print in libraries. There were approximately 500 participants of which 100 completed responses. These included individual residents, stakeholder and partner groups and organisations.

Climate Corners were attended by officers from the carbon reduction team to answer resident questions about the strategies through the prism of climate change. Over 150 residents engaged through the climate corner and were invited to complete printed surveys or respond online.

Throughout the consultation process, there are five common themes that have been articulated throughout:

I. Cost – what financial burden does the Climate Change Strategy place on residents and businesses?

II. Ambitions – are we ambitious enough? there is an inherent tension between the pace of change, scale of ambition and cost.

III. Interdependencies – there are significant co-benefits between delivering the strategies together that has been identified through the comments – specifically climate action comments that have been provided in response to the Economic and Health and Wellbeing Strategies, including the health impact of climate action and the health benefits of an inclusive economy.

IV. Individual perspectives – the focus groups show the differing requirements and recommendations of different groups of people. Executive will need to balance these differences throughout decision making.

V. Targets – understanding the Climate Change targets has created some confusion. This will be resolved through the revised strategy and draft Action Plan, with more work to follow to understand anticipated impact of the actions.

The Climate Change Strategy was simultaneously the most and least supported, with two thirds in favour and nearly a third not supporting. The main issue raised was the perceived lack of an action plan, and a draft has been developed in response.

Over 75% of participants agreed or strongly agreed that all five of the principles in the strategies were correct with the most important being the commitment to build inclusive, healthy and fair communities followed by our commitment to adapt to change.

Key strategic priorities were mostly supported (recognised as either a priority or a high priority) with reducing carbon, reforming local transport (the two highest priorities), improving the Natural Environment, Energy Supply, making good health more equal, preventing poor health now and starting good health and wellbeing young all noted as more of a priority.

Residents and businesses highlighted several areas where they could contribute to delivering the strategies, and also where they would like the council to focus. Their feedback has helped inform the Climate Change Action Plan and will be used in subsequent iterations.

Policy Context

The York Climate Change Strategy exists within a complex policy context at the local, regional and national scale. The integration of Strategic objectives across policy areas is key requirement for delivering on our climate change ambition, with existing and emerging policy acting as levers and critical enablers for action.

National	Regional	Local
The Clean Growth Strategy set targets to upgrade as many houses to EPC band C by 2035 (2030 for all fuel-poor households). The Government’s preferred target is that non-domestic property owners in the private sector achieve EPC band B ratings by 2030. Alongside the strategy, BEIS published joint industrial decarbonisation and energy efficiency action plans with seven of the most energy intensive industrial sectors, including the food and drink sector.	The Yorkshire and Humber Climate Commission is an independent advisory body set up to bring actors from the public, private and third sectors together to support and guide ambitious climate actions across the region.	The COVID-19 Economic Recovery Transport and Place Strategy was produced to secure the active travel benefits that have been realised during the pandemic. The strategy proposes to invest and create new networks of park and cycle hubs, priority cycle routes, cycle hire and parking to prioritise active travel as the preferred from of commuting.
The Future Homes Standard provides an update to Part L of the building regulations and will include the future ban on gas boilers by 2025 (which may be brought forward to 2023 under the recent 10-Point Plan).	The Yorkshire and Humber Plan – The Regional Spatial Strategy to 2026 aims to guide development in the next 15 to 20 years. Relevant policies picked out below.	The City of York Local Transport Plan 2011-2031 (LPT3) aims to reduce emissions across York by providing quality walking, cycling and public transport networks. The Local Transport Plan 4 is under development and will reflect the objectives within the Climate Change Strategy
Energy White Paper outlines the latest plans on decarbonising the UK’s energy system consistent with the 2050 net zero target.	Policy YH2: Climate change and resource use encourages better energy, resource and water efficient buildings and minimise resource demands from developments, as well as exploiting the continued supply of brown field opportunities.	In 2020, York launched a Clean Air Zone across the city which regulated buses. Funding from DEFRA and the Department for Transport was used to upgrade or replace existing buses using fossil fuels
The UK Green Building Council was set up in 2013 to investigate and recommend new ways forward to reach zero-carbon buildings.	Policy Y1: York sub area policy encourages strategic patterns of development on the Sub Regional City of York, whilst safeguarding its historic and environmental capacity.	York’s Public EV Charging Strategy sets out their approach to accelerating the transition to EV through a public charging network.
Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution includes ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030.	Policy T1: Personal travel reduction and modal shift highlights the need to reduce travel demand and congestion and encourage a shift to sustainable travel methods	CYC Asset Management Strategy 2017-2022 sets out how the council will manage its built assets. This will be supplemented with the emerging Housing Retrofit Action Plan
Moving Forward Together strategy commits bus operators to only purchase ultra-low or zero carbon buses from 2025.	Policy T3: Public transport sets out the need for improving public transport infrastructure and services to address problems of congestion and accessibility	Private sector housing strategy 2016-2021 covers the private housing stock in the city
Well Managed Highway Infrastructure – A Code of Practice - advocates sustainability through sustainable consumption and production; climate change and energy; natural resource protection and environmental enhancement; and sustainable communities.	Policy ENV12: Regional Waste Management Objectives advises that all plans, strategies, investment decisions and programmes should aim to reduce, reuse, recycle and recover as much waste as possible.	Cultural strategy 2019-2025 is designed to make a measurable, positive difference to the people of York
The Road to Zero Strategy 2018 sets out new measures to establish the UK as a world leader in development, manufacture and use of zero emission road vehicles.	Policy ENV12: Encourages local authorities to support waste facilities and management initiatives by moving it ravel the management of waste streams up the hierarchy, achieving waste management performance targets, and managing waste at the nearest appropriate location	The Low Emissions Strategy is targeted at reducing airborne emissions and has a direct positive impact on reducing carbon and other ghg emissions
Waste and Recycling: Making Recycling Collections Consistent in England (2019) The government are working with local authorities and waste management businesses to implement a more consistent recycling system in England. The measures are expected to come into effect in 2023.	Policy YH1 of the Yorkshire Humber Plan – Regional Spatial Strategy to 2026 states that growth and change in the region will be managed to achieve sustainable development	“Let's talk rubbish” outlines York’s Joint Municipal Waste Management strategy with North Yorkshire County Council. The report highlights an increased need for reducing, reusing and recycling.
Our Waste, Our Resources: A Strategy for England (2018) sets out how the country will preserve resources by minimising waste, promoting resource efficiency and moving to a circular economy.	Policy ENV5 of the Yorkshire and Humber Plan states the regions plan to maximise improvements to energy efficiency and increase renewable energy capacity.	The City of York’s Council Plan 2019-2023 outlines that the Council will review waste collection to identify options to provide green bins to more houses, curbside food waste collection and the range of plastics currently recycled.
Waste Prevention Programme for England aims to supporting a resource efficient economy, reducing the quantity and impact of waste produced whilst promoting sustainable economic growth	The Yorkshire and Humber Waste Position Statement was produced to ensure appropriate coordination in planning for waste	York are currently developing a Green Infrastructure Strategy which will establish a long-term vision for the planning and management of Green Infrastructure across York, identifying where the protection and enhancement of green spaces and natural elements can be achieved.
In the UK’s Industrial Strategy, one of the grand challenges set is clean growth, which refers to driving economic growth whilst reducing carbon emissions, and maximising the advantages for UK industry.	The Yorkshire and Humber Waste Technical Advisory Body ensures effective collaboration between Waste Planning Authorities in Y&H.	The City of York Local Biodiversity Action Plan 2017 provides information about the wildlife in York, the sites that are of value, its importance both for York and nationally, the current threats and what is being done to conserve it.
The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution includes plans to invest in carbon capture for industries that are particularly difficult to decarbonise.	The Yorkshire and Humber Regional Biodiversity Strategy highlights how the region can contribute to local, regional and international biodiversity obligations and identifies the key mechanisms and actions required of difference partners and sectors	Section 14 of the City of York Local Plan promotes sustainable connectivity through ensuring new development has access to high quality public transport, cycling and walking networks.
The 25 Year Environment Plan includes commitments to create new forests/woodlands, incentivise tree planting, explore innovative finance; and increase protection of existing trees.	The Humber Clean Growth Local White Paper sets out for the Humber region to be a net zero carbon economy by 2040.	York set an ambition to increase tree canopy cover in line with national average in the Tree Canopy Expansion Target
Land use: Policies for a Net Zero UK (2020) includes converting 22% of agricultural land (mostly from livestock) to forestry.	One of North Yorkshire and York Local Nature Partnership Strategy objectives is to conserve and enhance natural habitats and species. The LNP also sets out to strengthen natural corridors for species movement and aims to have a 75% coverage of green infrastructure corridors in LNP priority areas.	Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy 2017-2022: considerable co-benefits to health and wellbeing from reducing carbon emissions and minimising the impact of climate change
Woodland Trust Emergency Tree Plan recommends Local Authorities write an Emergency Tree Plan and set targets for tree planting.	The Humber Local Energy Strategy sets out two key objectives: To ensure decarbonization in Humber in the electricity, heat and transport sectors and; To foster clean growth by supporting low carbon technologies and taking advantage of opportunities of a low carbon economy.
The UK’s National Planning Policy Framework (2019) states as a core planning principle that planning should support the transition to a low carbon future	The York, North Yorkshire & East Riding’s Local Energy Strategy provides a clear pathway towards a low economy by implementing high-impact low carbon energy technologies such as energy efficient vehicles, renewable heat pumps, anaerobic digestion and biomass for heat.
UK National Energy and Climate Plan sets out integrated climate and energy objectives, targets, policies and measures for the period 2021-2030.

In Focus: Tourism

Tourism in York

In 2018, York received 8.4 million visitors, a figure which has increased 11.8% since 2014.

With York’s permanent population estimated to be 209,900, several key challenges arise when aiming to sustainably cater for both residents and tourists, such as:

• Tourism congestion, relating to the density and seasonality of visitors to the city

• Supporting businesses in the tourism sector to reduce emissions

• Ensuring the city remains livable for residents

We are in the process of updating our Tourism Strategy, which will include our approach to promoting sustainable tourism and how the sector can support our climate change ambition. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the entertainment, tourism and hospitality sectors have been significantly impacted. Opportunities to influence behaviour change as the industries recover and as tourists return should will considered as part of the strategy.

“Sustainable tourism has the potential to advance urban infrastructure and universal accessibility, promote regeneration of areas in decay and preserve cultural and natural heritage... Greater investment in green infrastructure should result in smarter and greener cities, from which not only residents, but also tourists, can benefit.” (United Nations World Tourism Organisation, 2015)

Emissions Profile

The current emissions profile for the area administered by City of York Council is shown in figure 3, based on the SCATTER tool calculations. This covers scope 1 and 2 emissions for the city-wide area of York. This covers 3 greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane and relates to the 2018 reporting year. While the embodied carbon associated with creating products used in York is an important consideration, this emissions profile only covers emissions generated within the city, as this follows the same boundaries set out by UK Government.

Not all subsectors can be neatly summarised as a "slice" of this chart. Emissions from land use act as a carbon sink for the region, sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. An illustration of this has been included in the chart.

Figure 3: SCATTER emissions inventory for York, 2018

City-wide emissions data (sometimes referred to as "community" or "geographic") encompasses all emissions within a specific geopolitical boundary over which local governments can exercise a degree of influence through the policies and regulations they implement.

The Global Covenant of Mayors (GCoM) requires committed cities to report their inventories in the format of the Common Reporting Framework, to encourage standard reporting of emissions data. The GCoM Common Reporting Framework is built upon the Emissions Inventory Guidance, used by the European Covenant of Mayors and the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC), used by the Compact of Mayors. Both refer to the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

The main greenhouse gases defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), as well as nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). GCoM cities are required to report at least CO2, CH4 and N2O gases.

An emissions inventory uses activity data which is a quantitative measure of a level of activity that results in GHG emissions taking place during a given period of time e.g volume of gas used, tonnes of solid waste sent to landfill. Emission factors are then applied to this activity data. An emissions factor is a measure of the mass of GHG emissions relative to a unit of activity. Government conversion factors for greenhouse gas reporting are used. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) use a factor describing the degree of harm to the atmosphere of one unit of a given greenhouse gas relative to one unit of CO₂.

York Emissions Subsectors

The following tables demonstrate the profile of each emissions sector and explain the sources of Scope 1 and 2 emissions included in each[1]:

Figure 4: Emissions by sector in York

Link data tables to appendix

In Focus: City of York Council Corporate Emissions

In 2021, City of York Council reported on emissions associated from its corporate activity for the first time. In total, its buildings, corporate waste, business travel and fleet were responsible for 3,635tCO₂e for the financial year 2020/21.

The council is committed to achieving net zero for its own operations by 2030 and has produced the following recommendations to achieve this:

· Produce a decarbonisation plan for our largest emitting sites to identify improvements in heat generation, building fabric and energy efficiency and renewable generation

· Adopt a policy to consider low carbon heating solutions for all system replacements

· Develop and promote a behaviour change campaign to reduce emissions associated with staff activity

· Explore opportunities to replace mains water with grey water 

· Implement vehicle route planning and driver training across our corporate fleet

· Promote remote event attendance where possible

· Adopt a policy that prioritises train travel over flights, wherever possible

· Increase the proportion of hybrid and electric vehicles in the car club fleet and encourage staff to use electric and hybrid vehicles

· Review the corporate waste contract and undertake a waste audit 

· Incorporate sustainable procurement and circular economy principles into our purchasing decisions

· Develop a methodology to calculate Scope 3 emissions associated with council activity

Emissions Reduction Pathway for York

The current emissions profile offers the baseline from which to measure progress towards net zero by 2030.  

Also important is the fact that once emitted, greenhouse gases such as CO₂ and N₂O can remain in the atmosphere for extended periods of time – up to hundreds of years. This means it is crucial to consider York’s cumulative year-on-year emissions.

The Paris Agreement aims of remaining “…well below 2°C” of warming dictate an upper limit of greenhouse gas emissions that are allowed.

We can join these ideas together in the form of a carbon budget, which guides a trajectory for emissions reduction.

Figure XY: Science based emissions reduction pathway for York that is consist with the IPCC 1.5oc scenario

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, based at the University of Manchester, have produced advisory climate change targets for York to make its fair contribution to meeting the objectives of the United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The latest scientific consensus on climate change in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on 1.5^oC is used as the starting point for setting sub-national carbon budgets that quantify the maximum carbon dioxide emissions in York to meet this commitment.

Figure 5: Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway and Business as Usual Pathway for York

In Focus: SCATTER Tool

SCATTER is a local authority focussed emissions measurement and modelling tool, built to help create low-carbon local authorities. SCATTER provides local authorities and city regions with the opportunity to standardise their greenhouse gas reporting and align to international frameworks, including the setting of targets in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Its use is free of charge to all local authorities in the UK.

The SCATTER tool:

· Generates a greenhouse gas emissions inventory following the Global Protocol for City-wide Greenhouse Gas emissions for your local authority area

· Helps the understanding and development of a credible decarbonisation pathway in line with emissions reduction targets

· Provides outputs that can be used for engagement to create a collaborative carbon reduction approach for local authorities

Objectives Analysis

Understanding carbon impact potential

Figure 6 provides a visual overview of the estimated carbon savings that would result if the objectives detailed in the Projected Emissions Pathway were achieved. Savings provided are cumulative, for the period 2020-2030.

• The diagram illustrates the high variance between the impact potential of the objective areas

• Mirroring the trend observed in the emissions inventory, the largest savings potential is found within the buildings and transportation sectors

• Specifically, actions associated with on-road transportation and building energy efficiency offer the biggest potential carbon savings 

In seeking to achieve your net zero target, it is recommend prioritising action with the largest carbon saving potential.

Figure 6: Cumulative carbon savings for York, 2020-2030, in line with the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway

Cost Implications

There are different types of cost to consider when evaluating carbon reduction actions, which can be helpful to define:

• Capital expenditure (capex) represents funds used to acquire, replace or upgrade a fixed asset e.g., the showroom price of an electric vehicle
• Operational expenditure (opex) represents funds spent or earned in the use and maintenance of that asset throughout its life e.g., the price of charging point electricity used to power the electric vehicle
• Marginal cost represents additional expenditure incurred as a result of choosing a low-carbon option over a higher-carbon alternative e.g., the difference between the showroom price of an electric vehicle versus a diesel equivalent
• Annualised costs represent a combined yearly capex and opex cost associated with a given initiative. The upfront capex is averaged over the lifetime of the project/asset (equivalent to a depreciation charge) and combined with any in-year operational cost/savings to provide a single number to compare assets like for like.

Each of these financial metrics represents an important consideration for the business case for different actions and are not always directly comparable. Estimates provided here reflect this, with an attempt made to clearly define the type and specific nature of each cost.

It should be noted that costs given are high-level estimates only and that forward-looking cost models are inherently limited in accuracy. Estimates are not intended to act as definitive costings and are instead better used as a means of appreciating the scale and nature of the financial implications of different activities.

Methodology

Estimates are based on a comparison between the cost of a baseline case (the “BAU”) and Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway equivalent within SCATTER for each sector. Estimates have been made in isolation for different objectives based on specific research and data contexts. Where possible, an attempt has been made to enable like-for-like comparison between estimates made for different activities within the same sector. Cost assumptions are themselves based on government datasets and underlying research papers, most notably the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget.

Carbon savings

Understanding the activities which offer the highest potential carbon savings is another way York can prioritise action towards net zero. Understanding which activities contribute most to reducing both District’s emissions also links into the hierarchy of actions for project development and sets out the “heavy hitting” objectives defined by SCATTER.

Estimating emissions savings

Using the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway and “Business as Usual” scenarios we can estimate emissions savings, broken down into different categories. This is done by comparing the projected emissions along each pathway from different subsectors (e.g. domestic lighting or commercial heating) for each year, and defining the difference between them.

A visual representation of this method is given below.

Which areas of activity have been estimated?

The categories of emissions savings are broken down slightly differently to the SCATTER objectives, meaning that the savings are grouped slightly differently. This is because of the interdependency of the SCATTER objectives, where more than one objective contributes to the same savings subcategory.

Since one action can contribute to more than one SCATTER objective target, the savings from multiple separate objectives may be combined into one subcategory. This is illustrated below:

Estimated Cumulative Savings

Buildings

Stakeholder Perspective

Cost Estimates

SCATTER activity	Assessed cost (£m)
Switch to electric cookers	6.1 (marginal opex as a result of switching to all-electric cooking systems)
New build standards are Passivhaus	23 (marginal capex of building to Passivhaus standard during construction) 119 (marginal capex of retrofitting new-build Part L in the future)
Reduced household energy demand	700 (capex required for retrofit on existing homes)
Switching away from gas heating	144 (marginal capex for domestic electric heating systems) -155 (marginal opex as a result of switching to electrified heating)

Notes & Caveats

Switch to electric cookers

• No additional capex assumed with the cost of installation for new electric cooking systems.
• Main cost here represents the potential added cost of fuel each year if the borough switches over time to electric systems, based on a marginal cost over a gas equivalent.
• Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway assumes a linear transition to electric cookers ending in 2035 – modelled as a retirement rate of 1/15^th of gas systems replaced each year.
• The cost for a household that switches from a full gas to a full electric system may incur higher energy bills as a result of the higher cost of electricity. Long-run energy prices taken from the CCC Sixth Carbon Budget.
• This analysis does not consider government subsidies for energy prices which may have a significant role to play in lowering the cost to consumers.

New build standards are to Passivhaus

• These figures are taken from a Currie & Brown and AECOM report which defines the marginal cost between building Part-L or Passivhaus standard both during construction and retrofit phases at a later date. This also accounts for heating systems (assumes air-source heat pump in a semi-detached house).
• The cost of retrofitting runs very high because retrofitting newly-built Part L to higher standards in future can cost between 3-5 times more than building to Passivhaus during construction.
• Number of new builds taken from SCATTER newbuild projections between 2020-40.

Reduced energy demand in homes

• This represents the capex required to complete inner/external wall retrofit on the numbers of households described by the HA pathway.
• Point capital costs for insulation and all other costs come from this BEIS study into the cost of domestic retrofitting. This also accounts for economies of scale, other fixed project costs and local geographical weighting, as well as a hurdle rate.
• Assumes a linear transition of completed retrofit from 2020 household numbers.

Switching away from gas heating

• CCC Sixth Carbon Budget has data on capex and opex of a variety of domestic heating systems. An average of these systems was used to determine the cost estimate opposite.
• Number of households taken from SCATTER (2020) and split between gas/non-gas according to aggregated government estimates at LSOA level. A flat 5% assumption was made on households already served by an electric system. All other off-gas properties assumed to be oil boilers.
• All systems assumed replaced at some point (retirement rate 1/15), so replacement costs are calculated for all systems including fossil.
• Opex assumption assumes energy bills are reduced over time as a result of efficiency improvements of electric over gas.

Building archetype	Improved building efficiency		Switching away from gas heating
	Capex (£m)	Annual opex (£m)	Capex (£m)	Annual opex (£m)
Arts, community and leisure	5.1	-0.007	1.1	0.1
Education	4.8	-0.009	1.8	0.15
Emergency services	1.4	-0.003	0.6	0.05
Factories	18.1	-0.018	2.7	0.25
Health	3.9	-0.010	1.7	0.15
Hospitality	4.1	-0.007	0.8	0.05
Offices	14.2	-0.018	1.6	0.15
Shops	13.3	-0.018	1.1	0.1
Warehouses	5.8	-0.008	1.1	0.1
Total	70.560.6	-0.098	12.2	1.1

Notes & Caveats

Improved building efficiency

• Non-domestic buildings in any area make up a very broad stock of diverse properties.
• The Non-Domestic National Energy Efficiency Database (ND-NEED)  was used to find the number of rateable properties in York.
• Costings from Building Energy Efficiency Survey (BEES), which outlines the cost of a package of retrofit measures across different non-domestic archetypes. These were mapped onto the ND-NEED rateable properties register at the local level according to a nationally representative mix of archetypes.
• Costs represent one round of retrofit. Annualised costs relate to the annual marginal expenditure across all sectors over the lifetime of a 15-year cycle of retrofit.

Switching away from gas heating

o Average load demand for heating across different archetypes calculated based on a combination of BEES consumption data and CCC statistics on heating systems.

o CCC publish £/kW values for capex and opex which have been applied to a scaled figure of average load demand for space heating and hot water.

o Figures represent the capex of a new heating system, whilst opex covers routine maintenance but not fuel costs. Fuel costs are only projected to constitute significant additional bills in the retail and office sectors, offering cost savings to many archetypes due to more efficient systems.

• Heating systems assumed to be replaced at a rate of 1/15^th each year.
• Costs expressed represent the annualised, marginal cost between a business-as-usual gas case and a Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway transition to electrified systems. They represent the annual additional cost of electric systems versus replacement like for like with gas.

Transport

Type of cost	Overall investment (£m)
	Capex	Opex
Infrastructure: cars/ vans/ motorcycles	74.5	-
Infrastructure: HGVs/ buses	38.3	-
Infrastructure: rail	3.7	-
Total infrastructure	116.5	-
New vehicles: cars/ vans/ motorcycles	433.5	-1,441.1
New vehicles: HGVs/ buses	108.4	-23.8
New vehicles: rail	30.9	-129.5
Total new vehicles	572.8	-1594.4
Efficiency measures	-	-284.7

Notes & caveats

o CCC Sixth Carbon Budget costings for capital expenditure and operational savings in the surface transport sector have been recast under SCATTER objectives to 2050 to give an estimate for the implications of the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway.

o Costs represent a scaled down portion of national expenditure in each area as set out in the Sixth Carbon Budget, based on vehicle registrations in York.

o Demand reduction and modal shift objectives have been mapped from the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway onto the expenditure, assuming all costs rise proportionally.

o The vast majority of expenditure and savings related to transport is made in the purchase and operation of new electric vehicles.

o Additional costs have also been given as part of this analysis, shown below in Table X. These are sourced from DfT and CCC Sixth Carbon Budget.

o Scaled costings have also been included for the “efficiency measures” objective from CCC modelling. It should be noted that whilst the costings are representative of similar changes within SCATTER, the details of this measure do differ and this figure should be taken with an added caveat.

Waste

SCATTER activity	Assessed cost (£m)
Reduce overall volume of waste & increased recycling	-56.9 (opex savings in gate fees)

Notes & caveats

Waste disposal

• This is based on simple modelling of future gate fees for recycling, landfill and incineration based on statistics in the 2019/20 WRAP gate fees report.
• SCATTER estimates for the volume and stream of waste are applied to current figures cast forwards to 2040.
• Gate fees represent the charge levied per tonne to dispose of waste by a given means e.g. landfill site or material recovery facility.
• Estimates do not cover the cost of collection and transport of waste. We have assumed there is no marginal cost between the two scenarios – lifetime cost of electric refuse collection vehicles (RCVs) is comparable to that of diesel RCV (see table opposite from DfT data).
• Not all payments for waste are handled purely through gate fees but this represents a useful proxy for comparative costs of increased recycling and reducing waste volumes versus the counterfactual.

Commercial & Industrial

SCATTER activity	Assessed cost (£m)
Industrial processes	5.6 (capex)

Notes & Caveats

• Cost represents the marginal capex of a low-carbon pathway for industry, scaled to Slough based on their share of national industrial fuel consumption.
• Government pathways can be found in the industrial pathways to decarbonisation summary report. 

Natural Environment

SCATTER activity	Assessed cost (£m)
Increased forest and tree coverage	3.9-0.77 (capex range depending on availability of government grant support)

Notes & Caveats

• Tree coverage and land area change under SCATTER objectives were modelled to 2030 in terms of increase in hectares of woodland.
• Woodland Creation & Management Grant gives costs for capex and opex per hectare of new woodland, which have been applied to the new hectares.
• Further funding opportunities for woodland creation, maintenance, management and tree health can be found here.
• Figures represent a marginal case for Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway over BAU; the range represents the impact government grant funding may have.

Energy

Renewable energy source	Overall investment (£m)
	Capex	Opex	Capex	Opex
	to 2030	to 2030	to 2050	to 2050
Offshore wind	32.6	47.5	127.2	227.9
Onshore wind	47.2	29	21.9	15.2
Large-scale PV (>10kW)	3.5	2.4	8.3	6
Small-scale PV (<10kW)	136.3	27.9	398	76
Hydroelectric	8	4.8	8.4	5.1
Total	227	111	563.7	330.2

Notes & Caveats

• The Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway for installed capacity across different renewable energy types has been cost modelled according to a BEIS report on the development of new installations.
• Costs of installation and maintenance are in constant flux; two benchmark constructing years (2030 & 2050) have been chosen from BEIS data and compared against capacities within the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway
• It is important to acknowledge that not all costs are incurred by a single stakeholder, since larger installations are government funded and smaller scale PV installations are paid for by households and businesses.
• Figures below indicate the scale of investment in renewable energy each year in order to meet the capacity targets set out by the Projected Emissions Reduction Pathway.

Date Tables

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-local-authority-and-regional-carbon-dioxide-emissions-national-statistics-2005-to-2019

The tables below set out the IPCC sectors from the UK GHGI which are included in each of the LA CO2 sector categories, including the specific fuels or other sub-categories where necessary.

Renewable electricity: number of installations at Local Authority Level

Renewable electricity: Installed Capacity (MW) at Local Authority Level

Renewable electricity generation: (MWh) at Local Authority Level

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/regional-renewable-statistics

Pathways calculation method

Introduction

The general method for calculating the emissions trajectories is based on factors for the change year-on-year in the city area in terms of the starting data point – for example fuel consumption, numbers of trees/animals, or levels of different types of waste.

The starting point for all the pathways is the Inventory data. These emissions sources are referenced in the Interventions descriptions below. There is one key area where we haven’t used this approach. For the energy supply baseline in Pathways, we’ve apportioned national energy generation trajectories to local authorities by area etc., rather than using the actual reported data per area, to try to come to a better estimation of future capacity for the different scenarios.

When multiple interventions are applied to an inventory area, the effect is the product of all these interventions

Electricity supply method

A key difference with how the inventory and pathway are calculated is that the pathway considers locally-generated electricity to be used locally, in preference to using the grid electricity.

Locally-produced electricity which we have calculated from the source data is used first. When this all used, remaining demand is met with imported electricity. This has a different expected emissions factor each year. The grid factor projections, which change year on year have been taken from BEIS projections to 2100[2].

If too much local electricity is produced, this is considered exported. Electricity to be used locally is used in the following order until total demand for that year is met:

· Solar PV

· Onshore wind

· Hydro

· Offshore Wind

· Wave/Tidal

· Biomass

· Nuclear

· CHP

· Fossil Fuels

Comparison to the Tyndall Centre carbon budget and BEIS LACO₂ data

Please be aware that the scope for the inventory calculated by SCATTER differs from the Emissions of carbon dioxide for Local Authority areas published by BEIS in a few key ways. SCATTER includes other gases to CO₂, uses different starting data, and includes categories not covered by the BEIS dataset. This is also the dataset used by the Tyndall Centre for their budgets.

The key reason for the discrepancy is that the more granular fuel consumption data we use for local authorities doesn’t include large industrial installations. Among the exclusions is “A considerable amount of consumption fed directly to power stations and some very large industrial consumers, as this would be disclosive.” These are mostly installations using power through a central voltage system.

Interventions

Forestry

•    Metric: Increase in forest land area

•    Emissions sources affected: Emissions arising from land classified as “forestry”

•    Interventions - Increase in forest land area

1.    5% increase in forest cover by 2030.

2.    10% increase in forest cover by 2030.

3.    16% increase in forest cover by 2030.

4.    24% increase in forest cover by 2030.

Original land use trajectories from DECC 2050 are used. Each land use type is mapped to a land use type used in the current SCATTER, by km². The rate of change in each land use trajectory is calculated for five-year chunks.

Land Management

•   Metric: Increase in land used to grow crops for bioenergy

•   Emissions sources affected: Emissions arising from land classified as grasslands, cropland, settlements and “other”.

•   Interventions

1.    2% decrease in grassland

2.    3% decrease in grassland

3.    4% decrease in grassland

4.    7% decrease in grassland

Original land use trajectories from DECC 2050 are used. Forestry is treated as a separate lever Each land use type is mapped to a land use type used in the current SCATTER, by km^2 The rate of change in each land use trajectory is calculated between 2020 and 2050 The mapping is as follows: Arable, for food crops (grades 1–3) LU_C Cropland Arable, for 1st gen energy crops  (grades 1–3) LU_C Cropland Arable, for 2nd gen energy crops  (grades 1–3) LU_C Cropland Grassland, for 2nd gen energy crops (grades 3–4) LU_G Grassland Grassland, for livestock and fallow (grades 3–5) LU_G Grassland Settlements LU_S Settlements Forests LU_F Forestland Other LU_O Other.

Livestock Management

•    Metric: Number of livestock

•    Emissions sources affected: Total number of dairy cattle; Total number of non-dairy cattle; Total number of sheep; Total number of pigs; Total number of horses; Total number of poultry

•    Interventions

1.    0.2% annual growth in dairy cows & livestock

2.    No change from current levels

3.    0.2% annual reduction in livestock numbers

4.    0.5% annual reduction in livestock numbers

Annual rates of change are applied for livestock. These are linear trajectories, but currently modelled in five-year periods. The trajectories are unchanged from the original DECC 2050 pathways and SCATTER V1. Trajectories impact dairy and non-dairy cattle, pigs. horses, and sheep, but not poultry.

Tree-planting

Increase in non-woodland tree planting in the area.

•    Metric: hectares of tree canopy

•    Emissions sources affected:  Tree cover outside woodland.

The baseline data for this is based on the National Forestry Inventory’s data[3] on tree cover outside woodland, including small woods, groups of trees, lone trees, and hedgerows. Statistics are for England, Scotland, Wales, GB, individual NFI regions, and separately for urban and rural areas. Where urban/rural classification is available (English Local Authorities)[2], the data has been apportioned according to this; in Wales and Scotland data is apportioned according to Country only. No data is available for Northern Ireland. The Forest Research report and datasets also provide information on the numbers, and mean areas of these tree cover features, plus estimates of lengths and areas of hedgerows.

•    Interventions

1.    Tree-planting to increase current coverage by 30% by 2030; no subsequent commitments.

2.    Tree-planting to increase current coverage by 30% by 2030; from 2030-2050 further increase of 5%.

3.    Tree-planting to increase current coverage by 30% by 2030; from 2030-2050 further increase of 10%.

4.    Tree-planting to increase current coverage by 30% by 2030; from 2030-2050 further increase of 20%.

Tree planting rates are calculated based in Manchester City of Trees (2014), A Potential Woodland Study - Phase 1 report.

The sequestration of carbon dioxide per hectare of trees is based on estimates of the tonnes carbon per hectare relationship and per biome estimate of total carbon storage potential for temperate broadleaf and mixed forests, using the original estimates from a Bastin et al’s 2019 paper The global tree restoration potential[4], and exclusions of soil organic carbon carried out in the follow-on study by Taylor & Marconi (2020)[5]. The resulting tonnes C increase with 1 hectare canopy, without soil organic carbon, is 81.

Using the example of one urban tree, gaining a canopy cover of 25m² – the average according to Forest Research[6] – the lifetime uptake is around 750 kgCO₂. We have modelled this uptake profile over the duration of the project based on the carbon calculations provided by the Woodland Carbon Code[7] , for the increasing annual sequestration rate as the tree grows.

Demand for heating and cooling

· Metric: TWh electricity and gas use by lighting, appliances and cooking

· Emissions sources affected: Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking; Petroleum products (2); Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking; Gas; Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking; Electricity

· Interventions

1. By 2050, domestic lighting and appliance total energy demand has dropped by 80%.

2. By 2050, domestic lighting and appliance total energy demand has dropped by 66%.

3. By 2050, domestic lighting and appliance total energy demand has dropped by 39%.

4. By 2050, domestic lighting and appliance total energy demand has dropped by 27%.

Reduced net TWh demand from domestic lighting and appliances.

Electrification of lighting, appliances, and cooking

· Metric: TWh electricity and gas use by lighting, appliances and cooking

· Emissions sources affected: Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking; Petroleum products (2); Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking: Gas; Domestic lighting, appliances, and cooking: Electricity

· Interventions

1. Small reductions in energy demand from cooking; no change in heat source.

2. Small reductions in efficiency of domestic cooking. Proportion of cooking which is electric increases to 100% in 2050.This lever combines reductions in energy demand from domestic cooking with an anticipated shift to electrified heat.

Scenario 1 assumes small efficiency gains but no shift in the share of domestic cooking which is electric; Scenario 2 increases electrification proportion to with 100% cooking electrified by 2050.

Domestic space heating and hot water – Demand

The key metric used in the demand trajectory in SCATTER is the total TWh energy consumed each year by households. Reductions in the total energy (TWh) consumed per household each year are applied to the total energy consumption for domestic water heating. This is the proportion of total energy reported domestic energy consumption for each fuel[8] allocated to hot water using statistics for Energy Consumption in the UK (ECUK)[9].

Total growth or reduction in demand per year is allocated to each fuel based on how much it is used in domestic water heating. The per-annum percentage changes in consumption of each fuel type for each intervention level are below.

Level 1 is an increase in domestic hot water demand, and level 2 assumes no change. These are proportionate to the scenarios mapped out in the original DECC 2050 Pathways calculator.

Intervention	Electricity	Solid hydrocarbons	Liquid hydrocarbons	Gaseous hydrocarbons
1	0.102%	0.007%	0.018%	0.245%
2	-	-	-	-
3	(0.072%)	(0.005%)	(0.013%)	(0.173%)
4	(0.171%)	(0.012%)	(0.031%)	(0.412%)

Insulation of new houses

This metric is applied to the current heating demand for your local authority. Numbers of new houses are taken from local authority household projections for England[10]. Where these do not go to 2041, the data has been extrapolated based on the trend. This amounts to a 12% increase between 2020 and 2040 in the number of households across the UK, a 2-3% increase every five years.

Demolition rates are assumed to be 0.1%[11] of current housing stock, roughly 28,000 dwellings per annum.

· Emissions sources affected: Domestic space heating and hot water; Coal (2) ; Domestic space heating and hot water; Petroleum products (2) ; Domestic space heating and hot water; Gas; Domestic space heating and hot water; Electricity; Domestic space heating and hot water; Bioenergy & wastes

· Interventions:

1. All new houses are built to 2013 building regulations (no change).

2. 50% new houses are built to 2013 building regulations; 40% to AECB standard; 10% to passivhaus standard.

3. 30% new houses are built to 2013 building regulations; 40% to AECB standard; 30% to passivhaus standard.

4. 100% new build is built to passivhaus standard.

We have modelled interventions based on application of combination of the following standards to all new build properties:

2013 building regulations (base case)

Association for Environment Conscious Building (AECB) standard

The AECB standard refers to a standard developed by the Association for Environment Conscious Building, aimed at those wishing to create high-performance buildings using widely available technology at little or no extra cost.

PassivHaus standard

Passivhaus is an international energy performance standard. The core focus of Passivhaus is to dramatically reduce the requirement for space heating and cooling, whilst also creating excellent indoor comfort levels. This requires very high levels of insulation; extremely high performance windows with insulated frames; airtight building fabric; 'thermal bridge free' construction; and a mechanical ventilation system with highly efficient heat recovery. For more information see the UK Passive House Organisation website.

The key metric used in the insulation trajectory in SCATTER is the average kWh per year consumed by houses in the local area. To carry out these calculations, we partnered with the Association for Environment Conscious Building. Space heat demand has been modelled in PHPP (Passive House Planning Package).

The kwh/year energy consumption assumed for these standards, respectively, are:

	kwh/year
New build 2013 building regulations	10,335
New build AECB standard	2,720
New build Passivhaus standard	1,020

Comparison with EPC scoring (SAP)

The PHPP system has been used to estimate savings in space heat demand from buildings. This is a more accurate and detailed assessment method than the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP), which is based on the annual energy costs for space heating, water heating, ventilation and lighting (minus savings from energy generation technologies) under standardised conditions, used for generating EPC scores. It uses a scale from 1 to 100. The method used means that the Specific Space Heat Demand of a building is often underestimated. 

Retrofit

The options presented allow you to change the proportion of houses that will receive different levels of retrofit assumed in your area in a target year of 2040.

The starting point for this is a weighted average of average kwh/year consumed by house types across England only – which has been applied to all local areas. A possible future improvement would be to localize this starting point per Local Authority, but this has not been done in this iteration as more localized and comparable data was not available.

The house types which have been modelled to generate this average, with the weightings, are:

· Bungalow (17%)

· 3-storey mid-terrace town house (35%)

· 2-storey semi-detached (48%)

The retrofit options are:

· Unimproved (repair & maintenance only)

· “medium” (deep inner wall insulation)

· “deep retrofit” (deep external wall insulation)

The assumed space heating demand (total kwh/household) are as follows:

Interventions:

1. All current households remain at weighted average heat loss.

2. By 2050, 30% of current stock is retrofitted to a medium level; 20% deep retrofit

3. By 2050, 40% of current stock is retrofitted to a medium level; 40% deep retrofit.

4. By 2050, 10% of current stock is retrofitted to a medium level; 80% deep retrofit.

Technology mix for heating

SCATTER considers thirteen technologies for heating buildings:

1. Gas boiler (old)

2. Gas boiler (new)

3. Resisitive heating

4. Oil-fired boiler

5. Solid-fuel boiler

6. Stirling engine μCHP

7. Fuel-cell μCHP

8. Air-source heat pump

9. Ground-source heat pump

10. Geothermal

11. Community scale gas CHP

12. Community scale solid-fuel CHP

13. District heating from power stations

Trajectories are modelled as a linear trend from the current mix towards the selected end distribution in 2050. In order to estimate the current technology mix, we compared the scenarios defined in the DECC 2050 Calculator with the Energy Technologies Institute Clockwork model[12] results for Manchester.

The scenarios from the 2050 calculator have been organised into order for the trajectories by prioritising high electrification, and district heating, with dependence on solid fuel the lowest priority.

The optimum scenario from the ESME analysis, which includes cost and return estimates (not within the scope of SCATTER) corresponds most closely to level 8, 50% of heating from heat-pumps (air and ground-source); the rest from community scale CHP.

Some scenarios have been excluded on the basis of their dependency on coal, and their similarity to other scenarios.

 The primary fuel source, electrification level and heating system mix in 2050 for each scenario is summarised in the table below:

Biomass/coal power stations

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: fossil fuel generation and biomass generation recorded at a national level in DUKES.

· Interventions

1. No change in solid fuel power generation.

2. Solid biomass generation increases by 50% in 2025, dropping off after that; Coal phase-out follows trajectories from the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario.

3. Solid biomass generation doubles in 2025, dropping off after that; Coal phase-out follows trajectories from the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario.

4. Solid biomass generation quadruples in 2025, dropping off after that; Coal phase-out follows trajectories from the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario.

5. Biomass generation replaces fossil fuel powered generation. Trajectories for phase-out are taken from the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios[13] Two Degrees scenario.

Hydroelectric power stations

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Hydro, Hydro pumped storage

· Interventions

1. Hydroelectric power generation grows to 19 MWh per hectare inland water in 2030; 20 in 2050

2. Hydroelectric power generation grows to 19 MWh per hectare inland water in 2030; 21 in 2050.

3. Hydroelectric power generation grows to 25 MWh per hectare inland water in 2030; 26 in 2050.

4. Hydroelectric power generation grows to 34 MWh per hectare inland water in 2030; 41 in 2050.

Increasing baseline hydroelectric power generation capacity. The TWh generated per GW capacity is calculated using the assumptions in the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario (2019).

Offshore wind

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Offshore wind

· Interventions

1. No change to large-scale offshore wind generation.

2. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 3.4 MWh per hectare in 2030; 5.3 MWh in 2050.

3. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 8 MWh per hectare in 2030; 5.9 MWh in 2050.

4. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 8 MWh per hectare in 2030; 6.9 MWh in 2050.

5. Increasing the rate at which offshore wind generation capacity changes. The TWh generated per GW capacity is calculated using the assumptions in the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario (2019).

Onshore wind

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Onshore wind

· Interventions

1. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 26 MWh per hectare in 2030; 1.46 MWh in 2050.

2. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 1.56 MWh per hectare in 2030; 1.75 MWh in 2050.

3. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 1.75 MWh per hectare in 2030; 1.93 MWh in 2050.

4. Large-scale onshore wind generation grows to 1.9 MWh per hectare in 2030; 2.2 MWh in 2050.

This lever works to increase the rate in installed GW per annum for onshore wind. The TWh generated per GW capacity is calculated using the assumptions in the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario (2019).

Small-scale wind

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Onshore wind not from Major Power Producers

· Interventions

1. No change to small-scale onshore wind.

2. Small-scale wind grows to 3 MWh per hectare in 2030; 2.6 in 2050 (from a baseline of 1.2 MWh per hectare.)

3. Small-scale wind grows to 2.6 MWh per hectare in 2030; 2.9 in 2050 (from a baseline of 1.2 MWh per hectare.)

4. Small-scale wind grows to 2.8 MWh per hectare in 2030; 3.3 in 2050 (from a baseline of 1.2 MWh per hectare.)

Total small-scale wind capacity is calculated in GW. The change each year is calculated for each five-year period of time. This change is applied to current reported small-scale wind.

Solar PV – Large

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Solar PV from Major Power Producers

· Interventions

1. No change in large-scale solar generation to 2030; growing to 100 kWh per hectare in 2050 (from a baseline of 50 kWh per hectare.)

2. Large-scale solar generation grows to 100 kWh per hectare in 2030; 200 in 2050 (from a baseline of 50 kWh per hectare.)

3. Large-scale solar generation grows to 100 kWh per hectare in 2030; 250 in 2050 (from a baseline of 50 kWh per hectare.)

4. Large-scale solar generation grows to 200 kWh per hectare in 2030; 400 in 2050 (from a baseline of 50 kWh per hectare.)

 Solar PV – Small

· Metric: TWh generation

· Emissions sources affected: Solar PV not from Major Power Producers

· Interventions

1. Local solar capacity grows to allow generation equivalent to 750 kWh per household in 2030; 1350 in 2050 (from a baseline of 400 kWh per household.)

2. Local solar capacity grows, generating equivalent to 1200 kWh per household in 2030; 2200 in 2050 (from a baseline of 400 kWh per household.)

3. Local solar capacity grows, generating equivalent to 1550 kWh per household in 2030; 3000 in 2050 (from a baseline of 400 kWh per household.)

4. Local solar capacity grows, generating equivalent to 2500 kWh per household in 2030; 5200 in 2050 (from a baseline of 400 kWh per household.)

Total small-scale solar PV is calculated in TWh generated, based on defined rates of total installed capacity (GW). The TWh/GW capacity generation efficiencies from 2017 - 2050 are taken from the National Grid's Two Degrees scenario (2019) for large scale solar PV, but the year on year rates of change are applied to the domestic / small scale solar PV recorded.

Demand for heating and cooling

· Metric: Change in energy demand for commercial lighting, appliances and catering.

· Emissions sources affected: Commercial space heating, cooling, and hot water; Petroleum products (2); Commercial space heating, cooling, and hot water; Gas; Commercial space heating, cooling, and hot water; Electricity; Commercial space heating, cooling, and hot water; Coal (2); Institutional space heating, cooling, and hot water; Petroleum products (2) Institutional space heating, cooling, and hot water; Gas; Institutional space heating, cooling, and hot water; Electricity; Institutional space heating, cooling, and hot water; Coal (2)

· Interventions

1. In 2050, commercial heating, cooling and hot water demand is 103% of today's levels

2. In 2050, commercial heating, cooling and hot water demand is 83% of today's levels

3. In 2050, commercial heating, cooling and hot water demand is 70% of today's levels

4. In 2050, commercial heating, cooling and hot water demand is 60% of today's levels

Changes are linear between 2020 and 2050.

Technology mix for heating and cooling

· Metric: Change in energy demand for commercial, industrial and institutional lighting, appliances and catering.

· Emissions sources affected: Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity; Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Coal (2); Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Coal (2); Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Interventions

SCATTER considers eleven technologies for heating buildings:

· Gas boiler (old)

· Gas boiler (new)

· Resisitive heating

· Oil-fired boiler

· Solid-fuel boiler

· Stirling engine μCHP

· Fuel-cell μCHP

· Air-source heat pump

· Ground-source heat pump

· Geothermal

· Community scale gas CHP

· Community scale solid-fuel CHP

· District heating from power stations

Trajectories are modelled as a linear trend from the current mix towards the selected end distribution in 2050. See Domestic Buildings for more detail on the modelling of these.

Energy demand for lighting, appliances and cooling

· Metric: TWh in energy demand for commercial, industrial and institutional lighting, appliances and catering

· Emissions sources affected: Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity

· Interventions

1. Commercial lighting & appliance energy demand increases 28% by 2050

2. Commercial lighting & appliance energy demand increases 15% by 2050

3. Commercial lighting & appliance energy demand decreases -4% by 2050

4. Commercial lighting & appliance energy demand decreases -25% by 2050

Total demand (TWh) from commercial, industrial, and institutional lighting and appliances increases in scenarios 1 and 2; decreases in scenarios 3 & 4.

Electrification of lighting, appliances, and catering

· Metric: Energy demand mix for commercial lighting, appliances and catering through electrification

· Emissions sources affected: Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Commercial lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Petroleum products (2); Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Gas; Institutional lighting, appliances, equipment, and catering; Electricity

· Interventions

1. Share of cooking which is electric is as today.

2. By 2050, 100% of commercial cooking is electrified.

This lever combines reductions in energy demand from commercial cooking with an anticipated shift to electrified heat. Scenario 1 assumes small efficiency gains but no shift in the share of commercial cooking which is electric. Scenario 2 increases electrification proportion to with 100% cooking electrified by 2050. This results in an increase in electricity consumption and decrease in other fuels used for commercial cooking.

Industrial processes – Efficiency

· Metric: Total TWh consumption and energy mix from energy intensity of industry.

· Emissions sources affected: Industrial buildings & facilities; Petroleum products; Industrial buildings & facilities; Gas; Industrial buildings & facilities; Electricity; Industrial buildings & facilities; Coal

· Interventions

1. Industry moves to higher natural gas consumption, with electricity consumption falling before 2035 then remaining constant.

2. Industrial electricity consumption as a share of total energy increases between 2035 and 2050, reaching 40% of total energy consumption.

3. Industrial electricity consumption is 50% of total energy consumption by 2035; 65% by 2050.

This lever impacts the energy consumption trajectories from industrial buildings and facilities, and split by energy demand. The trajectories are focused on electrification of industry.

Industrial processes – Output

· Metric: GHG emissions from industrial processes

· Emissions sources affected: Iron and steel process emissions; Non-ferrous metals process emissions; Mineral products process emissions; Chemicals process emissions; Other industry process emissions

· Interventions

1. Other industry process emissions are reduced at a rate of 2.6% per year.

2. Reductions in process emissions from all industry, with larger emissions reductions in the chemicals industry (0.4% pa) and other industry (6% pa). Metals and minerals industries also reduce process emissions 0.2% pa and 0.1% pa respectively.

3. Reductions in process emissions from all industry: general industry reduces process emissions at a rate of 4.5% per year. Chemicals emissions reduce 1% per year; metals 0.7% per year, and minerals 0.8% per year.

This lever impacts the process emissions from industrial activity. Separate trajectories are modelled for chemicals, metals, and minerals, industries. Growth rates are applied to the different industries' direct greenhouse gas emissions. Growth in "output index" from industry which applies to current process emissions and energy demand. Specific trajectories per industry type, mapped from 2015 - 2025 and 2025 – 2050.

Domestic freight (road and waterways)

· Metric: TWh fuel use by on-road transport; TWh fuel use by waterborne freight

· Emissions sources affected: On-road transportation, waterborne transport

· Interventions

1. 47% increase in distance travelled by road freight; 40% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 15 %decrease in fuel use.

2. 27% increase in distance travelled by road freight; 60% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 6 %increase in fuel use.

3. 6% decrease in distance travelled by road freight; 71% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 25 %increase in fuel use.

4. 22% decrease in distance travelled by road freight; 75% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 28 %increase in fuel use.

Domestic freight interventions affect both on-land and waterborne freight.

On-land freight interventions are based on the on-road fuel consumption allocated to your Local Authority[14]. For this iteration of SCATTER, it has not been possible to separate the proportion of this attributable to freight. A UK-wide average has been applied to every Local Authority, based on the Local Authority specific data available for road transport fuel consumption[2].

For Waterborne freight, total fuel consumption from national navigation increases as waterborne transport is increased.

Domestic passenger transport – Demand

· Metric: TWh fuel use across all transport

· Emissions sources affected: Petroleum products (2)Road transport; Onroad Sc Petroleum; Coal (2) Rail; Petroleum products (2)Rail

· Interventions

1. No change to total travel demand per person

2. 5% reduction in total distance travelled per individual per year by 2030.

3. 15% reduction in total distance travelled per individual per year by 2030.

4. 25% reduction in total distance travelled per individual per year by 2030.

 Domestic passenger transport - Modal Shift

· Metric: TWh fuel use by different transportation options

· Emissions sources affected: Petroleum products (2)Road transport; Onroad Sc Petroleum; Coal (2) Rail; Petroleum products (2)Rail

The initial modal split used is taken from the National Travel Survey’s 2017/18 Average Distances Travelled by Mode[15]. The split represents the distribution between average distance travelled per transport mode in Urban Conurbations across England. “Urban conurbation” has been chosen with the intention of representing LA’s using the tool who have both urban and rural coverage. Full statistics are available summarized in the Factsheets published by the DfT[16]. The Rural Urban Classification is an Official Statistic and is used to distinguish rural and urban areas. The Classification defines areas as rural if they fall outside of settlements with more than 10,000 resident population[17]. The mode share data is a national breakdown of average mode share, which does not split by local authority, therefore this is not tailored to each local authority area.

The following changes are applied to reach level 4 ambition:

o % walking x3

o % cycling x3

o % using buses x3

o % using railways x1.5

Levels 2 and 3 are mid-points between L1 and L4.

· Interventions

1. No change to current national average modal split by total miles: 74% transportation by cars, vans and motorcycles.

2. Average modal share of cars, vans and motorbikes decreases from current national average 74% total miles to 56% in 2050.

3. Average modal share of cars, vans and motorbikes decreases from current national average 74% total miles to 47% in 2050.

4. Average modal share of cars, vans and motorbikes decreases from current national average 74% total miles to 38% in 2050.

Domestic passenger transport – Technology

· Metric: TWh fuel use by different transportation options

· Emissions sources affected: Petroleum products (2)Road transport; Onroad Sc Petroleum; Coal (2) Rail; Petroleum products (2)Rail

· Interventions

1. Cars, buses and rail is 100% electric by 2050. Slight increase in average train occupancy.

2. Cars, buses and rail is 100% electric by 2040. Slight increase in average train occupancy and bus occupancy.

3. Cars, buses and rail is 100% electric by 2035. Average occupancies increase to 18 people per bus km (from 12), 1.62 people per car-km (up from 1.56), and 0.42 people per rail-km (from 0.32).

4. Cars and buses are 100% electric by 2035, rail is 100% electric by 2030. Average occupancies increase to 18 people per bus km (from 12), 1.65 people per car-km (up from 1.56), and 0.42 people per rail-km (from 0.32).

 International aviation

· Metric: TWh fuel use from aviation

· Emissions sources affected: Aviation_fuel_Sc1; Aviation_fuel_Sc3

· Interventions

1. Department for Transport "central" forecast for aviation.

2. Department for Transport "high" forecast for aviation.

3. Department for Transport "low" forecast for aviation.

Department for Transport growth forecasts[18] for international aviation, applied to both in-boundary airport emissions and to scope 3 emissions from people in the local area travelling. A rate of change calculated between aviation in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

The "Central" forecast represents the DfT base-case; "Low" encapsulates 'lower economic growth worldwide with restricted trade, coupled with higher oil prices and failure to agree a global carbon emissions trading scheme'; "High" scenario projects 'Higher passenger demand from all world regions, lower operating costs and a global emissions trading scheme'[19].

International shipping

· Metric: TWh fuel use by on-road transport; TWh fuel use by waterborne freight

· Emissions sources affected: Petroleum products (2)Road transport; Onroad Sc Petroleum 004:Petroleum products_internal;  004:Petroleum products_coastal

· Interventions

1. 47% increase in distance travelled by road freight; 40% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 15 %decrease in fuel use.

2. 27% increase in distance travelled by road freight; 60% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 6 %increase in fuel use.

3. 6% decrease in distance travelled by road freight; 71% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 25 %increase in fuel use.

4. 22% decrease in distance travelled by road freight; 75% increase in efficiency. In waterborne transportation, 28 %increase in fuel use.

For Waterborne shipping, total fuel consumption from national navigation increases as waterborne transport is increased. Road freight trajectories are developed from a combined impact of reduced distance travelled by HGVs (mostly diesel; electric trajectories only begin in the 2040s) with an increased efficiency (i.e. reduced energy demand per vehicle-km). The starting point for road freight efficiency is 5.29 TWh/bn vehicle-km (BEIS 2017), Road transport energy consumption at regional and local authority level, 2015) Baseline trajectory sees this efficiency increased to 3.15 TWh/bn vehicle-km by 2050. For the most ambitious (L4) scenario, the efficiency in 2050 is 1.34TWh/bn vehicle-km.

Road freight trajectories are developed from a combined impact of reduced distance travelled by HGVs (mostly diesel; electric trajectories only begin in the 2040s) with an increased efficiency (i.e. reduced energy demand per vehicle-km). The starting point for road freight efficiency is 5.29 TWh/bn vehicle-km (BEIS (2017), Road transport energy consumption at regional and local authority level, 2015) Baseline trajectory sees this efficiency increased to 3.15 TWh/bn vehicle-km by 2050. For the most ambitious (L4) scenario, the efficiency in 2050 is 1.34TWh/bn vehicle-km.

Increase in rates of recycling

· Metric: Increase in proportion of total waste directed towards recycling.

· Emissions sources affected: Open-loop; Closed-loop; Landfill; Composting; Combustion; Wastewater

· Interventions

1. 65% recycling, 10% landfill, 25% incineration by 2040; remaining constant to 2050

2. 65% recycling, 10% landfill, 25% incineration achieved by 2035 remaining constant to 2050

3. 65% recycling, 10% landfill, 25% incineration achieved by 2035, recycling rates increasing to 75% by 2050

4. 65% recycling, 10% landfill, 25% incineration achieved by 2035, recycling rates increasing to 85% by 2050

This lever interacts with reduction in volume of waste to define the total waste arisings and which waste stream they are captured in. Here, trajectories calculate the percentage recycling, landfill and "other" waste, applying these changes to the waste recorded in each category.

The "base case" is that the EU targets for 65% recycling are reached in 2035[20]; subsequent trajectories have different anticipated dates for reaching this. In Scenario 2, 65% recycling is met between 2045 and 2050. In Scenario 3, recycling increases steadily from 65% just after 2035 to 81% in 2050. In scenario 4, the recycling target is met earlier than 2035 and by 2050 85% all waste is recycled. The scenarios are applied to reported recycled and landfilled waste, as the change in the anticipated % waste recycled.

Reduction in volume of waste

· Metric: Reduction in volume of waste

· Emissions sources affected: Open-loop; Closed-loop; Landfill; Composting; Combustion; Wastewater

· Interventions

1. Total volume of waste is 124% of 2017 levels by 2040.

2. Total volume of waste is 109% of 2017 levels by 2040.

3. Total volume of waste is 86% of 2017 levels by 2040.

4. Total volume of waste is 61% of 2017 levels by 2040.

Total volume of waste arising is calculated by type (Household, Commercial & Industrial, Construction & Demolition) according to defined percentage changes in each. This total is summed for each five-year period. The change in this total each year is applied to all types of reported waste for the local authority.

By simplifying the trajectory, and applying the same reduction in wastage rates uniformly, a level of detail between different types of waste arising has been lost. However, the original waste trajectories are similar.

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[1] Emissions sectors may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

[2] Treasury Green Book supplementary appraisal guidance on valuing energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. - Table 1: Electricity emissions factors to 2100, kgCO2e/kWh (March 2019)

[3] https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/what-our-woodlands-and-tree-cover-outside-woodlands-are-like-today-8211-nfi-inventory-reports-and-woodland-map-reports/

[4] Bastin, J.F., Finegold, Y., Garcia, C., Mollicone, D., Rezende, M., Routh, D., Zohner, C.M. and Crowther, T.W., 2019. The global tree restoration potential. Science, 365(6448), pp.76-79. Supplementary material available from: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/suppl/2019/07/02/365.6448.76.DC1/aax0848-Bastin-SM.pdf

[5] Taylor, S.D. and Marconi, S., 2020. Rethinking global carbon storage potential of trees. A comment on Bastin et al.(2019). Annals of Forest Science, 77(2), pp.1-7. Paper available at: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/730325v2.full.pdf

[6] https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/what-our-woodlands-and-tree-cover-outside-woodlands-are-like-today-8211-nfi-inventory-reports-and-woodland-map-reports/

[7] https://www.woodlandcarboncode.org.uk/standard-and-guidance/3-carbon-sequestration/3-3-project-carbon-sequestration

[8] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/total-final-energy-consumption-at-sub-national-level

[9] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk

[10] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/householdprojectionsforengland

[11] [7] 2050 Calculator Tool (DECC) IX.A DOMESTIC SPACE HEATING AND HOT WATER http://2050-calculator-tool-wiki.decc.gov.uk/pages/31

[12] ETI (2015), UK Energy Systems Model Clockwork and Patchwork Results Charts http://www.eti.co.uk/programmes/strategy/esme

[13] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/total-final-energy-consumption-at-sub-national-level

[14] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/road-transport-consumption-at-regional-and-local-level

[15]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/822089/nts-2018-factsheets.pdf

[16]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/822089/nts-2018-factsheets.pdf

[17] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/2011-rural-urban-classification

[18] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017

[19]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/781281/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017.pdf

[20] European Waste targets for 2035 https://www.letsrecycle.com/news/latest-news/eu-set-softer-targets-55-recycling-2025/